Intuit just reported one of its best fiscal years in recent history, 14% revenue growth, 20% earnings-per-share growth, operating cash flow of $8.84 billion against $6.21 billion the prior year, and the stock is down roughly 60% from its July 30, 2025 all-time high closing price of $798.42. That gap between what the business produced and what the market is paying for it is the entire Intuit argument in 2026.

The fiscal fourth quarter, reported August 25, reinforced the pattern. Revenue of $4.4 billion beat the $4.27 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $4.03 came in 47% above the prior year and ahead of the $3.58 estimate. The company’s so-called big bets, assisted tax, money services, and mid-market, collectively grew 34% and accounted for 30% of full-year revenue. Mid-market alone grew 39%.

The Business

Intuit runs TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. Four platforms, four different customer bases, and one shared problem: AI threatens the guided-help moat that made TurboTax sticky for about 35 million online units in fiscal 2026 and QuickBooks indispensable for small businesses. The market has been pricing in that threat since mid-2025, and it has not stopped.

What the numbers show is different. About 75% of Intuit Enterprise Suite customers are now using AI agents monthly for reconciliations and month-end closes. Intuit has said Intuit Accountant Suite is used by 600,000 tax and accounting professionals. Those are not the metrics of a company being disrupted from the outside, they are the metrics of one running the disruption itself, while also managing the transition costs.

Why Wall Street Is Paying Attention

Goldman Sachs downgraded to Sell in June, cutting its target to $276 and citing heightened competition in tax. That call is on the table. But 20 of 34 analysts still rate INTU a Buy, and the consensus target sits considerably above current levels near $318. At that price, the stock trades at roughly 13 times fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings, well below the 30-plus multiple Intuit commanded for most of the last decade.

What’s Driving the Opportunity

The fiscal 2027 guidance is 9% to 10% revenue growth, a deliberate deceleration. Management acknowledged it is sacrificing near-term TurboTax pricing to defend market share and rebuild the customer acquisition funnel it let erode. TurboTax growth is guided at just 2% to 3% next year. That is the reset the stock has been discounting for months.

The case for buying is that $8.84 billion in operating cash flow does not belong to a company with an approximately $85 billion market cap trading near 13 times earnings, regardless of the competitive threat. The company also authorized an additional $8 billion for share repurchases in May 2026 and Intuit’s founder and executive leadership team terminated pre-scheduled stock sale plans in March 2026, two signals management sent specifically because it believes the stock price is wrong.

What Could Go Wrong

The Goldman thesis is not implausible. AI tax preparation is getting better, faster than Intuit originally projected. Online paying customers grew only 3% to 8.9 million in fiscal 2026, a deceleration that preceded the FY27 guidance cut and that management has not fully explained away. A securities fraud class action lawsuit filed in July 2026 adds headline risk, even if it has no near-term operational impact.

The Bottom Line

Intuit is a profitable, cash-generating business trading at a valuation that assumes the AI threat wins more ground than the current revenue trajectory supports. That is a bet worth examining carefully, but it is a bet, not a confirmed outcome. The reset year is FY27. How management executes the customer acquisition pivot will determine whether $318 was the floor or a waypoint.