Nike is slated to be removed from the S&P 100 before Monday’s open (September 21, 2026), ending a nearly 18-year membership in the index. In the same rebalance, it is being replaced by Palo Alto Networks. The stock is near $35, and it closed at $35.51 on Friday, September 18, 2026, a level it last traded around a decade and a half ago. Q1 FY2027 earnings arrive October 1. That is the context every investor needs before forming a view on this stock right now.
The Business
Nike is still the world’s largest athletic footwear and apparel company by revenue, with $46.4 billion in fiscal 2026 sales. That scale matters, but it is the composition of those sales that explains the stock. Nike Running has posted five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, adding roughly $1 billion in revenue along the way. North America grew 3% in Q4 FY2026, with wholesale revenue up 10% and the first positive Foot Locker comparable sales in four years. These are real wins under CEO Elliott Hill’s Sport Offense operating model.
The drag is everything else. Sportswear and Jordan streetwear, which together account for roughly half of total revenue, fell double digits in Q4 and management guided them to stay negative through the first half of FY2027. Greater China revenue declined 12% on a reported basis and 17% currency-neutral in Q4. Converse revenue dropped 32% across all territories. Nike Direct fell 7%.
Why Wall Street Is Paying Attention
The stock has fallen 43% over the past year, and it is down sharply from its November 2021 peak, when Nike’s market capitalization was roughly $225 billion. That kind of compression tends to attract a certain kind of investor, one who believes the business is better than the price suggests. Thirty-three analysts still cover the stock. The consensus price target is near $49, more than 35% above Friday’s close. Telsey Advisory lowered its target to $44 this week. UBS sits at $42. The range between the bears and the bulls reflects genuine disagreement, not noise.
Nike appointed a new CFO, David Denton, effective August 17, bringing in a Pfizer finance veteran with a $7.3 million new-hire bonus. Management framed the transition as part of its multi-year turnaround effort, with Hill emphasizing capital discipline and long-term value creation as the mandate.
What’s Driving the Opportunity
Three things need to be true for NKE to work from here. First, Running and North America wholesale growth must hold. Five straight quarters of double-digit Running growth is a product cycle argument, not luck. Second, margins need to expand. Management guided gross margins up in Q1, with cost benefits accelerating into Q2. Third, analyst consensus projects EPS recovery to $1.85 in fiscal 2027, a 24% increase year-over-year from the depressed fiscal 2026 base. At 17.5x those estimates, the stock is not expensive if the earnings recovery materializes.
The October 1 report is the first full quarter under a new CFO with a new operational framework. Options markets are pricing a mid-single-digit expected move. NKE’s actual post-earnings moves over the past eight quarters have landed closer to high-single digits. The implied move is too small relative to history.
What Could Go Wrong
The China reset has no clear timeline. Revenue there fell 17% currency-neutral last quarter, and management has not signaled a bottom. Tariff uncertainty adds pressure to input costs. The streetwear drag is structural, not cyclical; Jordan repositioning takes seasons, not months. RBC warned in June that market share losses could extend into 2027 and 2028, with Nike’s growth rate expected to trail the broader industry. The S&P 100 exit, while mechanically modest in terms of forced selling, signals something about how institutional investors currently categorize the brand.
The Bottom Line
Nike’s October 1 report will not resolve the multi-year turnaround question. It will answer a narrower one: is Running strength and North America wholesale momentum durable enough to offset China and Converse, and did margins actually expand in Q1 as management guided? If yes to both, the stock at $35 carries a credible recovery argument that the current price does not reflect. If either falters, the path to $49 analyst targets gets longer. This is a show-me story at a show-me price.
