September 14, 2026
Bonus Content: Eli Lilly Is Winning the Obesity Pill Race. Here’s Why.
Wall Street loves a new story.
But sometimes the more interesting opportunity is a company that has been waiting years for the market to catch up.
One little-known Nasdaq company has spent more than 25 years developing professional drone technology that is now a priority in Washington.
This is not a company trying to invent itself around D.C.’s latest push.
It was developing these technologies long before America’s current drone demand started.
That experience matters as the Pentagon looks for scale and Washington directs more attention toward domestic manufacturers.
Yet the company is still trading under $5… for now.
If America’s drone industry is entering a much bigger chapter, investors may want to know why this pioneer remains so overlooked.
Eli Lilly Is Winning the Obesity Pill Race. Here’s Why.
The weekly scoreboard is in. Both Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill and Eli Lilly’s Foundayo reached their highest-ever total prescriptions in the period ending September 11, with the Wegovy pill hitting approximately 183,000 scripts according to IQVIA data cited by Citi, while Foundayo climbed nearly 8% to reach 47,500 scripts. For the first time since Foundayo’s April launch, analysts have a genuine side-by-side comparison running every week. What those numbers reveal about which stock to own is less obvious than the raw totals suggest.
The Wegovy Lead Is Real, but the Story Is More Complicated
Novo holds a commanding volume advantage, and that much is undeniable. While Novo leverages its first-mover advantage with the familiar Wegovy brand, Lilly is betting that the freedom from strict fasting and water requirements can give Foundayo an edge. That convenience argument is starting to show up in the data. Using the last four weeks as a guide, total GLP-1 prescriptions have increased by 5.4% compared to a 6.8% decline the prior year, a swing Citi analysts attributed to the expansion of oral therapies broadening access to the class and drawing in new patients.
Novo’s volume lead is genuine, but it is also narrowing faster than the headline numbers imply. Citi analysts noted that IQVIA may still be missing some Foundayo prescriptions made through telehealth channels, which means Foundayo’s true weekly run-rate is likely higher than reported. Lilly broadened direct-to-consumer marketing after securing commercial access across the three major pharmacy benefit managers in late May, and additional access became available July 1 through the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program at a $50 monthly copayment. Both access levers were largely absent during Q2, when Foundayo sales came in at $98 million versus a consensus estimate of about $103 million.
Why Wall Street Prefers LLY
A sales miss on Wegovy pill revenue and a clinical setback for Novo’s next-generation obesity drug CagriSema weighed on Novo, while Lilly’s broader cardiometabolic franchise once again surpassed analyst expectations. The contrast between the two companies’ broader businesses has sharpened all year. Lilly reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that beat estimates and raised its full-year sales outlook, now expecting 2026 revenue between $85 billion and $87 billion.
Novo, meanwhile, is playing a different game entirely. Novo Nordisk’s quarterly beat and guidance increase did little to resolve Wall Street’s biggest concern: whether the Ozempic maker has a convincing path back to sustainable growth as competition from Eli Lilly intensifies. Novo’s shares fell about 6% after its second-quarter update on August 4, 2026.
LLY, by contrast, trades near $1,116. Foundayo expanded from about 8,000 prescribers to 36,000 prescribers over the past several months, a trajectory that closely mirrors Zepbound’s early pattern. Zepbound gained significant market share despite launching considerably later than Wegovy, and Lilly now has the opportunity to replicate that playbook in the oral market.
The Pipeline Gap Is the Real Differentiator
The oral GLP-1 race is one front. The longer-term contest is being decided in the pipeline, and Lilly is ahead there too. Lilly said it will file for approval of its next-generation obesity drug, retatrutide, in the first quarter of 2027. In TRIUMPH-3, adults with severe obesity and established cardiovascular disease lost up to an average of 55.8 pounds at 80 weeks, and in both pivotal studies retatrutide met its primary endpoints. Novo’s equivalent, CagriSema, has delivered lower A1C reductions than Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head trial in patients with Type 2 diabetes.
What Could Go Wrong
LLY is not cheap. LLY trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 37, compared to Novo’s roughly 11. Any slip in Foundayo’s prescription ramp, a manufacturing setback with retatrutide, or a broader market rotation away from growth names would hit the stock hard. Novo, at that valuation, offers a more forgiving entry point for investors willing to wait out the turnaround. The Wegovy pill delivers about 14% average weight loss after roughly 64 weeks of treatment, versus about 7% to 11% for Foundayo depending on dose, a clinical gap that some physicians will weigh regardless of convenience arguments.
The Bottom Line
The weekly prescription scoreboard makes Novo look dominant. The company picture makes Lilly the stronger stock. Foundayo is closing the oral gap with better access, a no-fasting dosing advantage, and a prescriber base that has grown more than fourfold since April. Behind it, retatrutide is tracking toward what Clarivate analysts project as blockbuster potential later in the decade. Novo has the brand. Lilly has the business. For investors choosing one name today, LLY is the more compelling case.
