September 6, 2026
With consumer discretionary the lone losing sector of 2026, the infrastructure engineer stands apart from Goldman’s dip list.
Goldman Sachs published a cross-sector buy list over the weekend that includes Alibaba, Burlington Stores, Ulta Beauty, Viking Holdings, and AECOM. Four of those five names depend, in some meaningful way, on a consumer who is already under siege. One does not. That asymmetry is where today’s case begins.
A Pound of Gold Pays Your Annual Salary Now
In 1971, the average U.S. wage bought 125 pounds of gold. Today it buys just one. Under the guise of strengthening it, a 55-year policy has eroded the dollar’s purchasing power. Weiss Ratings senior analyst Gavin Magor calls this “Project Pyramid.” Foreign nations have noticed too. Global gold reserves are up 130% since 2015, while dollar reserves are at an all-time low.
Why This Stock Now
Most of the S&P 500 sectors are positive in 2026, with energy leading the pack. Consumer discretionary is the only group in the red, down modestly on the year. Into that backdrop, Goldman Sachs touted five stocks it says are too attractive to ignore, including Alibaba Group. The others: Burlington, Ulta Beauty, AECOM, and Viking. Three of the four non-AECOM names sell directly to discretionary consumers. Goldman is right that they look cheap. The question is whether cheap is enough when the macro is actively working against the customer.
Short-term interest-rate futures have been swinging sharply, but as of midweek they implied roughly a two-thirds chance of a Fed rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting, up from the high-50s just before Friday’s jobs report. Oil has also been volatile amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. That combination punishes spending-sensitive names. AECOM bills governments, not households.
The Business
AECOM is the global infrastructure leader, solving complex challenges in water, environment, energy, transportation, and buildings for public and private clients across the full project lifecycle, from planning and design to program and construction management. The firm had revenue of $16.1 billion in fiscal year 2025. Its revenue base is governments and institutions, not consumers choosing whether to buy a lipstick or a cruise cabin.
Why Wall Street Is Paying Attention
Goldman Sachs kept a Buy rating on AECOM after the fiscal Q3 report and lowered its price target to $91. ACM closed at $66.58 on Friday, September 4, 2026. That gap from current price to Goldman’s target is roughly 37%. Across Wall Street, the stock is still generally viewed favorably, with most analyst ratings sitting in Buy territory and price targets clustered well above the current quote.
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The stock’s decline is the story. AECOM’s 52-week high was $135.52, set on November 13, 2025. The shares have roughly halved since then, a move driven almost entirely by one accounting event rather than a fundamental collapse in demand.
What’s Driving the Opportunity
AECOM posted an adjusted net loss of $64 million, or $0.50 per share, in its fiscal third quarter. The loss was driven by a $337 million pretax charge from delays and higher projected costs on a legacy construction management project. Painful, but bounded. The underlying infrastructure engineering business kept winning work at a record pace.
Backlog increased 13% to a new record in Q3, driven by a 1.6 book-to-burn ratio. Management has also reiterated long-term targets, including a 20% plus margin exit rate by fiscal 2028 and adjusted EPS growing at a 15% plus compound annual rate from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029, based on the continuing design and consulting business and excluding construction management.
The demand side remains structurally intact. In the United States, a substantial portion of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act funding remains available, providing a multiyear tailwind. Internationally, the United Kingdom’s 10-year infrastructure strategy carries at least £725 billion in long-term funding, while a clear global trend toward accelerating national defense spending is also contributing to AECOM’s revenue and backlog growth. The company is also benefiting from rapid growth in the energy and high-tech sectors, driven by data center development and widespread electrification.
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What Could Go Wrong
The construction management charge is the obvious scar, but the deeper concern is whether it is a one-time event or a signal of broader project risk. Management updated fiscal 2026 guidance to reflect the construction management charge. Near-term visibility remains clouded by policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, contract execution risks, and potential delays in government-funded projects. Any second large charge from a legacy project would reset the thesis entirely.
Significant claims recorded in contract assets have risen sharply since fiscal year-end 2025, and investors will watch that number closely at the Q4 report in November.
The Bottom Line
Goldman’s five-stock list arrived into a weekend defined by a potential Fed hike, volatile crude tied to Middle East escalation, and a consumer sector that is the only net loser in the S&P this year. Alibaba, Burlington, Ulta, and Viking all require that consumer pressure to ease before their thesis fully works. AECOM’s customers are governments building water systems, highways, and data center infrastructure. That demand does not evaporate when gasoline gets expensive.
A one-time $337 million charge knocked ACM from the mid-$130s to the mid-$60s. The backlog is at a record high. Goldman holds its Buy rating and a $91 target. The risk is real but identifiable. Of the five names on Goldman’s list, AECOM is the only one where the investment case is insulated from the exact macro forces weighing on markets right now. That is the single strongest argument for owning it today.
