March 4 (Reuters) – Volkswagen’s truck unit Traton gave a cautious outlook for 2026 on Wednesday, with no margin improvement seen at the midpoint of the given range, even as European orders should help sales numbers.
While the German truckmaker expects unit sales development to be better than last year’s 9% drop, its forecast for adjusted operating return on sales, at 5.3% to 7.3%, is broadly on par with the 2025 margin of 6.3%.
Unit sales performance is seen between a 5% decline and a 7% rise, the company said.
Its shares fell 1.8% by 0945 GMT, as analyst Fabio Hölscher from Warburg Research said the guidance was cautious despite a resilient year-end rally, mainly driven by Traton’s MAN brand in Europe.
An implied operating profit outlook of around 2.8 billion euros ($3.3 billion), as calculated by Citi, is 15% below market expectations according to the brokerage.
Traton reported a 7% decline in 2025 sales revenue to 44.1 billion euros, while its adjusted operating profit slumped 36% to 2.8 billion euros, reflecting difficult market conditions shaped by U.S. tariffs and muted demand in Europe.
However, incoming orders increased by 7%, driven by a 32% uptick in Europe. In contrast, customers in North America were still holding back due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff policies, Traton said.
“The primary strategic concern is the transition of (Traton’s U.S. brand) International Motors back to profitability amidst shifting U.S. trade barriers,” Hölscher said in an emailed comment.
CEO Christian Levin told Reuters that Traton remains exposed to the U.S. Section 232 tariffs on heavy-duty trucks, as their imports are “deemed a threat to national security”.
Traton supplies the U.S. market through its manufacturing sites in Mexico, for which duties apply despite the USMCA free trade agreement. It plans to offset costs related to this through mitigation and cost measures.
Asked about the Middle East conflict, Levin said the market was shut off and no vehicles could be delivered to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But the region makes up only about 2% of Traton’s revenue, so this is not a disaster from a business point of view, he added.
($1 = 0.8618 euros)
(Reporting by Simon Ferdinand Eibach in Gdansk, additional reporting by Bartosz Dąbrowski; editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak)
